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ASEAN External Orientation and PRC’s Growing Influence Post-AEC, Trade in Goods Perspective

This study investigates the ASEAN trade interdependency both with intra-regional and extra-regional partners before and after the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Specifically, the study focuses on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and its influence on ASEAN trade in goods (TIG). By analysing statistical trends from 2016 to 2022, author compares the post-AEC period with the decade preceding AEC implementation in 2006-2015. This research deploys statistics as a pivotal role in addressing the research questions, considering their reliability and precision. Statistics were the primary tool for verification and clarification of the export and import trends across prominent markets. Additionally, the study scrutinizes commodities of strategic importance and explores the complex dynamics that shape trade interdependency. This study relies on perspectives from neoliberalism school of thoughts taking into consideration its strong relevance with the ASEAN-Dialogue Partners dynamic relations. Key findings include: 1) the share of intra-regional trade within ASEAN remained stagnant pre- and post-AEC. In the transition from the pre-AEC era to the post-AEC period, there was a notable shift in intra-regional trade, moving from a dominance of mineral fuels and coal to a predominance of electronics. On the other hand, ASEAN-PRC TIG experienced rapid growth post-AEC, eliminating its substantial gap with intra-regional trade, 2) Post-AEC, PRC had a more pronounced impact on ASEAN imports rather than exports, 3) Vietnam was most important driver of ASEAN-PRC enhanced trade relation over the two periods, and 4) Electronics emerged as the primary driver of both intra-regional and ASEAN- PRC TIG growth, maintaining market concentration in both regional exports and imports. This research sheds light on the evolving aspects of ASEAN trade and underscores the significancem of the ASEAN-PRC relationship in the context of regional economic integration.
Hanif Wibisono - Personal Name
220131059 - Hanif Wibisono
Tesis PMH
Inggris
Universitas Paramadina
2024
Jakarta
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