Bairoch pointed that pattern of the history of the past plays significant role in developing the situation in the present and future. Thus, analysing the past will help understand what happen in the present and give significant policy motives that might arise in the future. This thesis addresses the question of how patterns of conflict in the South China Sea previously begin from 1950 to 2022 created the state of insecurity towards national sovereignty of Indonesia as neutral state in the disputes. This thesis argues that the dispute in the past (1950-2015) mainly initiated as a response to China's shift in seeing their territorial boundaries, which then shifted their foreign policy approach. Media, and how they delivered or framed the cause also found to be a significant part of the disputes. It is found in the first and second pattern that when media played active role in framing the story, amount of conflict arisen, and active response are presented from parties involved; causing rise in sense of insecurity. Shall this pattern continue, which is found to be likely in the future with increasing military capability and military expenditure, this thesis found that Indonesia has the right and appetite to blockade and/or suspense International Transit Passage rights (ITPs) in times of military activities. This was allowed by international law that bonds the states, and precedents show that it is doable. This thesis also assesses the likely impact to ASEAN Member States and close parties shall the blockade happens, from economic, compliance, and foreign policy perspective. If Indonesia would like to blockade and/or suspense the ITPs, this thesis found that Indonesia has to cooperate closely with Singapore and Malaysia, whilst control the other ASEAN Member States to play the collective game as the key winning factor.

Keywords: South China Sea, blockade, ASEAN, China